The Iowa caucuses are upon us, and all eyes are on Donald Trump. He currently holds an unprecedented over 30 point lead in the latest Iowa poll, the largest in the poll’s 30-plus-year history. But if Trump falls short, what then?
The Republican field remains crowded, with many viable options waiting in the wings. Could a surging Nikki Haley attract bipartisan support? Might Vivek shock pundits by breaking out from his status as Trump’s sidekick? Iowa is famously unpredictable, and this year is no exception.
A Trump defeat would signal the country’s desire for change and open the floodgates. The consequences for the GOP would be far-reaching. But for now, the man himself appears unstoppable. Iowa will be the first test of whether Trump’s populist appeal can translate to votes.
Grab some popcorn, because this show is just getting started.
The Iowa caucuses are fast approaching, and Donald Trump holds a commanding lead, according to the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer. Trump’s lead of over 30 points over his Republican rivals is unprecedented in the 30-plus-year history of Selzer’s poll, at least for a competitive GOP contest at this stage.
To put Trump’s enormous lead in perspective, back in January 1988, Bob Dole led his closest competitor by 28 points in the Iowa poll, winning the caucuses but ultimately losing the nomination to George H.W. Bush.
In November 1995, Dole held a 25-point advantage and would win both the caucuses and the nomination. In January 2000, George W. Bush led the poll by 27 points, subsequently winning the caucuses, the nomination, and ultimately the presidency.
Trump’s current polling lead surpasses all of these past Iowa frontrunners in Selzer’s poll. The size of his advantage is historic.
Now to the numbers: A striking 54 percent of likely Iowa GOP caucus goers say Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds’ endorsement of Ron DeSantis does not influence their vote, according to the poll. Still, 31 percent say the endorsement makes them more likely to back DeSantis, though his support only rose 3 points to 19 percent since the endorsement in October. And just 14 percent say Reynolds’ backing makes them less likely to support DeSantis.
The data shows Trump dominating in Iowa like no candidate before him. But in this unpredictable political climate, the only certainty is uncertainty. Iowa will provide the first test of whether Trump’s populist support can translate into votes when the caucuses commence.
But when you examine history, winning Iowa does not guarantee overall victory.
Since 1976, only 3 of 7 presidents, Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush, all won their Iowa caucuses before taking the White House. Iowa winners Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Donald Trump in 2016 all initially lost the Iowa caucuses before becoming president.
So while Iowa offers an early test of candidate strength, it is just one early battle in a long race. Trump failed to win Iowa in 2016 yet still claimed the presidency. And his current dominance in Iowa polling, while certainly an impressive feat, does not definitively predict his prospects in the general election.
Ultimately, the Iowa caucuses provide an initial snapshot of voter sentiment, but many tests remain for candidates seeking the White House. Despite his current polling advantage, Trump would be wise not to take Iowa for granted, as national triumph is never guaranteed even with an Iowa victory. But his unprecedented Iowa lead shows his populist appeal is resonating powerfully with voters early in this election cycle.
While Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa, his path to victory is never assured. If Trump were to falter, the question becomes: who could replace him as the GOP frontrunner?
Several big names stand ready to take the reins. As mentioned previously, Nikki Haley could attract bipartisan appeal given her moderate stance. Her ability to draw Democratic voters could make her a formidable Trump alternative.
Also discussed was rising star Vivek, who, despite being very pro-Trump, has potential to break out on his own, instead of borrowing someone else’s tactics. An unexpected Vivek breakthrough could signal voters’ appetite for a political outsider.
But do they actually have a chance? Let’s take a look at the facts.
Nikki Haley is running an appeal-to-the-middle campaign in Iowa, positioning herself as a composed, mainstream conservative who could attract bipartisan support as the first female US president. Her pragmatic pitch clearly contrasts with Donald Trump’s divisive rhetoric, though he retains a commanding lead in Iowa polls.
At her campaign stops in Iowa, Haley shared her personal playlist of Queen, Abba and Pat Benatar which set the moderate tone she seems to be going for.
She promises typical Republican policies like tax cuts and reduced spending, while criticizing Trump for stoking “Republican chaos.” Voters like Stacey Harmelink see Haley as a unifying figure compared to Trump’s polarizing approach.
The source notes Haley seems relegated to second place currently behind Trump’s zealous base. But she is aided substantially by billionaire donors like the Koch brothers seeking a Trump alternative. They believe Haley can win independent and moderate voters that Trump cannot.
Haley also polls well head-to-head versus Biden. In fact, Nikki Haley polls better against Biden than Trump does.
Recent polls indicate Nikki Haley may be the strongest Republican general election candidate against Joe Biden in 2024. The latest polling shows Haley leading Biden by 4 points head-to-head, while Trump only leads Biden by 2 points and Ron DeSantis is up just 1 point.
Some polls even give Haley shockingly large leads over the sitting president. A Wall Street Journal poll released just before the Iowa caucuses showed Haley defeating Biden by a whopping 17 points. Meanwhile Trump led Biden by just 4 points in that same poll.
This data highlights Haley’s strategy of selling herself as the most broadly electable candidate compared to Trump’s polarizing persona.
While Trump remains the favorite among the Republican base, Haley’s numbers suggest she could attract wider support among independents and moderates in a general election.
Her composed, mainstream conservatism looks to be playing well in hypothetical head-to-head matchups versus Biden.
Haley seems capable of peeling off disaffected Democrats while still uniting the GOP base. Iowa will test whether she can start translating that theoretical electability into actual votes.
So while Trump dominates for now, Haley remains poised to inherit support should he falter.
Her mainstream appeal and potential to make history as the first female president still give her an outside chance, especially with major financial backing. But she must peel off some of Trump’s base while solidifying the middle to have a viable path.
Iowa will show if her delicately balanced strategy gains enough traction to threaten Trump’s frontrunner status.
On the other hand, another GOP candidate, Vivek Ramasmawy, has taken an entirely different approach.
Vivek seems to be walking in Trump’s footsteps, making headlines left and right for his outlandish claims that actually still resonate with a lot of people, with his most recent headline being for when he did 30 push-ups with a college student at Iowa’s “Faith and Family” forum with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.
A business-savvy CEO-turned politician, you can draw many similarities between him and Trump.
In fact, in a recent interview, Vivek told the country to prepare for a “major surprise” in the upcoming Iowa caucus.
But will Vivek’s position as a wannabe Trump eventually hurt him? Why vote for a less-experienced, less-established version of Trump? Why go for a watered-down version when you can have the real deal?
This could have Ramaswamy possibly aiming to break out of his “Trump wannabe” persona, and possibly make a name for himself on his own merit, instead of copying someone else. Whether that could work out for him or not is debatable
But also, maybe Ramaswamy doesn’t want to win in 2024 at all, and is only setting himself up for presidential candidacy later in the future. While Vivek Ramaswamy seems like a candidate to watch, we probably won’t get to see his full potential until about 8 to 10 years from now.
All in all, the Iowa caucuses will provide a critical first test of Trump’s populist coalition. His historic polling lead shows his support is strong, but is it transferable to actual votes?
If Trump falls short of a decisive Iowa win, it could crack his invincible streak and make way for challengers.
Nikki Haley awaits in the wings with her carefully threaded centrism, capable of peeling off Trump support. Her strengths in head-to-head polling versus Biden suggest a Haley nomination may offer the GOP their best shot at retaking the White House.
But Trump’s base cannot be underestimated. They still adore his confidence and authenticity. A Trump loss seems unfathomable to his die-hard followers.
But maybe the true wild card is Vivek, who despite mimicking Trump’s sensationalism, could garner protest votes from voters seeking a fresh face.
In this climate of volatility and frustration, almost any outcome seems possible. Iowa may merely muddy the waters further rather than providing definitive clarity.
One thing is for sure – the road to the nomination promises plot twists and surprises no pundit can predict.
