Trudeau has fallen behind in the polls in every single way imaginable. And now, he just lost his main demographic – women.

In fact, Pierre Poilievre now has a 12-point lead among women in the polls. Trudeau’s collapse among women voters is a stunning reversal from 2015, when he led strongly among women in his first election win. 

After nearly 8 years of Trudeau’s leadership, even his core supporters are abandoning him. The 12 point Conservative lead among women shows how Trudeau’s policies have failed a key demographic that was central to his initial rise to power.

And it’s no wonder, Canadians all around have grown sick of Trudeau’s track record on the economy, housing affordability, inflation and more.

With women making a little over half of the population, the Liberal fall among this demographic spells doom for Trudeau’s hopes in 2025. The progressive idol who was once lifted up by women is now being sunk by them.

Could this new progression seal the deal for Poilievre’s bid in the next federal election?

Trudeau’s support is evaporating among key demographic groups, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives strongly hold a 17-point lead, according to the latest poll from Abacus Data.

The Conservatives lead among every demographic group and in every region except Quebec, while the Liberals don’t have a lead anywhere to be found.

On a national level, a staggering 41% of voters support the Conservatives, while the Liberals trail behind with 24%, and the NDP in third at 18%.

Those numbers are quite impressive on their own, but it’s the demographic numbers that tell the real story. The trends truly seem to be shifting entirely.

And the scariest shift for the Liberals is that their share of support among women and other demographic groups has fallen dramatically. In some cases, they are tied with the NDP, or even worse, in third place.

According to the poll, only 25% of women say they will vote for Trudeau and the Liberals, a category they used to carry. 

And for the Conservatives, 37% of women are saying they will back them, and 24% for the NDP.

This may come as no surprise. Most Canadians are turning away from the Liberals anyway, so it only makes sense that women are a part of that demographic. However, this progression may be more significant for a number of reasons.

Women were a core pillar of the Liberal’s electoral coalition under Trudeau, drawn to his progressive messaging and feminist branding. But this new staggering gender gap shows how profoundly Trudeau has alienated female voters.

For context, Trudeau dominated the women’s vote in 2015, winning a majority government lifted by strong female support. Now, after nearly 8 years of Trudeau’s leadership, even these core supporters are abandoning him.

An article in Chatelaine magazine back in 2016 asked, “Is Justin Trudeau the candidate women have been waiting for?”

Polling released in December of 2014 showed that the Liberals had averaged 37% among women. The Conservatives, by comparison, had averaged just 28% support. It seems that those numbers have completely flipped.

This reversal seems driven by accumulating Liberal policy failures that have impacted women and Canada as a whole, including the unaffordable housing crisis, high costs and inflation, as well as the extremely strained healthcare system.

These pocketbook issues are urgent priorities for many women, and Trudeau is seen as mishandling them. His lofty feminist rhetoric now rings hollow for many female voters facing economic instability.

Meanwhile, Poilievre’s populism appeals to their financial worries. His focus on inflation, government spending, and housing affordability resonates with women feeling the pinch. While not traditionally associated with women’s issues, Poilievre is now seen as the pragmatic solution-focused candidate.

With women making up a little over 50% of voters, losing them by such a wide margin could single-handedly sink Trudeau’s re-election odds. 

And it’s not just, but women are also more likely to vote.

A previous Elections Canada study estimated that turnout among women in the 2011 federal election was more than two percentage points higher than it was among men. Turnout among women was also higher than among men in battleground provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.

Women helped propel his meteoric rise – and they now could fuel his downfall.

One particularly humiliating detail in the polls is that the Liberals now only barely lead the NDP by 1 point among women voters. This narrow lead highlights just how dramatically Liberal support has plunged among a core constituency.

In normal circumstances, the NDP as the third distant party wouldn’t even factor into a close Liberal-Conservative race among women. Yet now the NDP is nipping at Liberal heels for second place, even among a traditionally favorable demographic like women.

The NDP functioning as a spoiler here is deeply embarrassing for Liberals. It shows their political grip slipping to the point where Trudeau is virtually tied with the head of Canada’s third-ranked party. This injects further unpredictability and vote splitting into the left side of the political spectrum.

The NDP managing to erode the Liberal gender gap like this would have been unthinkable in past elections. But it speaks to how severely Justin Trudeau has killed support across demographic lines. The Liberal brand is so damaged that even third-ranked parties like the NDP can put a scare into them among once-loyal voting blocs.

This poll is a humiliating gut check for Liberals – it reveals support has plunged so low that no constituency can be taken for granted anymore. Their base has fractured to the point where they must fend off scrappy underdog parties even among key demographics like women. 

It’s a sign of how fickle Liberal political dominance has become in Canada’s new multi-party reality.

The Liberals are also losing support among another key demographic – young voters.

Among those aged 18 to 29, a demographic group the Liberals and NDP used to fight over, the Conservatives are also in the lead with 32% support compared to 28% for the NDP and 18% for the Liberals.

So in some cases, the Liberals are even falling behind the NDP by a staggering 10 percentage points.

Many young people are working towards owning a home, but under Justin Trudeau, it seems that home ownership is now a unrealistic dream for many,

Trudeau ignored the housing affordability crisis for far too long, while Poilievre stepped forward to actually offer solutions, and young voters realized that quickly.

This now raises the question – will Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party be able to survive this?

It seems that all arrows are pointing towards the idea that they will not be able to come back from this drastic decline in support.

The clearest sign that the Liberals are in deep trouble heading into 2025 is their catastrophic cratering among women voters. Justin Trudeau’s electoral success relied on strong support from women, along with Quebecers and seniors. But now the Conservatives hold a dominant 12 point lead among women, representing a decisive shift in a core Liberal constituency.

This dramatic erosion of women’s support underscores how severely Trudeau’s political prospects have dimmed. Women were a linchpin for past Liberal majorities. But Trudeau’s feel-good rhetoric and political charm that once attracted women has now worn thin after years of perceived policy failures.

It’s not just that the Liberals are losing women and winning men – it’s that the Conservatives are winning not just women, but all Canadians in general by a large margin. This shows a decisive realignment, not just Liberal bleeding support to the NDP. It represents most voters actively picking Conservatives over Liberals.

Trudeau only ever really did well with three main demographic groups – women, seniors, and Quebecers – but now it seems that he doesn’t even have his key demographic’s support to back him in the next election.

This cripples the Liberal electoral math since women make up over half the electorate. Trudeau’s lofty rhetoric and attempts to wait out controversies are clearly no longer working on women. This suggests a fundamental shift where Liberal failures have alienated even their most loyal supporters.

Absent a massive rebound among women, it’s hard to see how Trudeau can recreate the coalition that powered past Liberal majorities. 

The loss of women voters signals lasting downfall, not just a temporary slump. It suggests Trudeau has lost his political magic with a group that formerly fueled his success.