Justin Trudeau has become so irrelevant that Canadians have simply started tuning him out. With Trudeau’s Liberal ship rapidly sinking, citizens are already looking ahead to his successor.

It’s like no one’s even bothering to listen to him lecture them anymore.

Canadians know Trudeau is headed for a long walk in the snow come next election. His days playing dress up in Ottawa are numbered. 

Oil and gas companies are now ignoring his climate policies, betting on a new government to scrap them. Regular Canadians are also entirely tuning out Trudeau’s tired speeches and empty PR stunts. They’re looking straight past his virtue signaling to the cold political reality ahead.

Trudeau has become like background noise Canadians have learned to simply filter out. An opening act before the main event – his removal from office. All that’s left is making it official at the ballot box. 

The question now is – when will that be?

Canadians are so sick of Trudeau that they’ve decided to fully ignore him. Things are going so bad for him right now that most Canadians know that he’s gonna get the boot sooner or later.

In fact, many Canadian oil and gas firms are completely ignoring Trudeau’s emission cuts under the belief that he will be leaving office soon.

They’ve said that they will not rush to accelerate emissions cuts until they see if unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survives long enough to implement his proposed oil and gas emissions cap.

And in all honesty, that’s a pretty solid approach. It’s smart of them, if you ask me.

Trudeau’s most recent climate framework demands oil companies in Canada cut carbon emissions by up to 38% by 2030 from 2019 levels. But Trudeau might not even get to live out his wildest climate dreams as Canada’s Prime Minister.

We all know that Trudeau currently finds himself highly unpopular with Canadian voters.

Opinion polls consistently show the opposition Conservative Party under leader Pierre Poilievre holding a commanding double-digit lead over Trudeau’s Liberals. A federal election is expected by 2025 at the latest, and Conservatives have vowed to abandon Trudeau’s emissions caps if elected.

With Trudeau’s prospects for retaining power looking extremely shaky, oil companies see no reason to rush into costly emissions cuts based on climate targets the Conservatives will likely shred after overthrowing Trudeau.

So producers are openly stating they will wait to see if Trudeau can even survive in office long enough to implement his framework.

If he gets booted as expected, then they will not be affected anyway – so why put themselves through the trouble in the first place?

Essentially, oil companies are calling Trudeau’s bluff.

With his weak polling and deteriorating credibility, they doubt he can actually follow through on threatened caps before his coming electoral defeat.

So energy producers are choosing to defy Trudeau’s orders and maintain current operations until his replacement provides policies they can’t afford to ignore. Their defiance highlights the lack of respect Canada’s oil industry now has for the struggling Liberal government under Trudeau’s leadership.

The situation is so bad that even Canada’s main oil-producing province, Alberta, has vowed to develop a “constitutional shield” against the cap.

The open defiance being shown toward Trudeau’s emissions caps is especially strong among small and mid-sized oil producers. These smaller companies are leading the resistance, highlighting the major rift between the Liberal government’s climate change policies and Canada’s economically vital oil sector.

Several of Trudeau’s past climate measures have already been rejected by the courts as unconstitutional overreaches into provincial jurisdiction.

This legal pushback highlights the oil industry’s mistrust of federal climate interventions. Now the vocal objection of smaller producers against Trudeau’s latest proposed caps reveals how deep the divide has become.

Conservative shadow minister for natural resources Shannon Stubbs argued the emissions framework represents another example of unwarranted federal intrusion into provincial affairs.

She maintained that fossil fuel policy should be left to the provinces rather than unilaterally imposed by Ottawa.

The defiant tone of smaller oil companies shows how strongly they reject the federal government’s right to dictate provincial resource development in this way.

They see Trudeau’s climate policies as an existential threat being unjustly forced upon them from above. Their resistance highlights the massive gulf separating Liberal climate goals from the industry they imperil, which remains critical to Canada’s economic well-being.

Until Trudeau bridges this divide in a way courts deem constitutional, unrest in the oil sector will continue hindering climate progress.

One example of open defiance toward Trudeau’s climate framework comes from Bonterra Energy Corporation. Bonterra CEO Pat Oliver has stated the company aims to boost oil production above 20,000 barrels per day through new acquisitions, up from its current 14,000 barrels daily.

This expanded production would release higher total emissions that could surpass federal caps. However, Oliver insists Bonterra will not accelerate emissions reduction efforts to comply with Trudeau’s framework until the political fate of the policy is clear.

Bonterra is already reducing emissions in limited ways, via cutting gas flaring and upgrading old equipment. But Oliver says they are unlikely to make substantial reductions in line with federal targets unless mandated to do so by a government certain to stay in power.

And can you really blame him?

Oliver directly questioned the chance of Trudeau’s emissions cap legislation surviving, given weak Liberal polling ahead of a likely 2025 election loss. “Say that we would have to spend significant capital (to comply), we would have a look at, is this government going to survive and what are the chances of this legislation surviving?” he remarked.

It seems that Trudeau’s fate is clear, and that all arrows are pointing one direction, and that is the downfall of the Liberals once and for all, after eight long years.

Recent opinion polls contain profoundly troubling signs for Justin Trudeau and the governing Liberal Party.

For months now, the polling has shown the Liberals falling further and further behind the opposition Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre. This trend does not seem to be reversing anytime soon.

Since May of 2022, poll after poll has shown the Conservatives holding commanding leads over the Liberals, ranging from 10 points to as high as 19 points.

One late November poll by respected polling firm Nanos had the Conservatives a staggering 19 points ahead – an enormous gap signaling massive discontent with Trudeau’s leadership.

Trudeau and his allies have tried dismissing this polling as temporary dips and statistical noise, claiming Poilievre was having “bad weeks.”

However, this wishful thinking has been contradicted by the consistent Conservative dominance month after month. And Poilievre’s popularity has only climbed, reaching over 40% approval versus just 24% for Trudeau.

The NDP, by the way, are back at 18% – where they were in the last election. They are not a threat to anyone, it seems.

These numbers are from Abacus Data, who reversed their previous claims that the Conservatives were reportedly “plummeting” in the polls, at a time when most polling firms were saying the complete opposite.

Delving deeper into the numbers reveals just how comprehensively Trudeau is losing across all demographics and regions.

The Liberals don’t lead a single demographic category, whether gender, age group, or education level.

Even in their former stronghold of Quebec, they now trail the separatist Bloc Quebecois. And the crucial battlegrounds of Ontario and British Columbia are solidly Conservative.

The Liberals’ support among women has cratered to just 25%, a massive 12 points behind the Conservatives.

Trudeau has lost his political base, and with it his best claim to hold power. Even young voters are turning Conservative, despite traditionally leaning left, showing how fully Trudeau has alienated the next generation through failed promises.

In summary, the situation looks dire for Trudeau from every angle.

The Conservatives have all the momentum while Trudeau lacks support across the board.

While no election outcome is guaranteed, Trudeau seems headed for an ugly defeat.

The Conservatives need only a handful of seats to convert their dominant polling lead into a majority government. At this trajectory, Trudeau will be piloting the Liberals into a death spiral ending in a disastrous trainwreck.

He will likely join the ranks of one-term Prime Ministers who flame out after early promise gives way to disappointment and scandal.

Trudeau’s dream of securing his political legacy seems bound to end in failure. The lasting memory he leaves behind may be one of squandered potential and unfulfilled aspirations for the transformational change and “sunny ways” he once promised.