The recent polls spelling disaster for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals should serve as a stark warning sign that it is time for the Prime Minister to step aside. With the Conservatives surging under Pierre Poilievre and the Liberals hemorrhaging support even in longtime strongholds, all signs point to an impending thrashing for Trudeau and his party if an election were held today.
After eight controversial years in power, Trudeau has lost the trust of Canadians who once embraced his hopeful vision for change.
Now viewed as an out-of-touch elite disconnected from the struggles of ordinary people, Trudeau has allowed rising star Poilievre to position himself as the nation’s champion.
The polling leaves little doubt – Trudeau has lost his political magic.
Rather than suffer the disgrace of being tossed from office by voters, the humbled Prime Minister would be wise to read the writing on the wall and gracefully bow out while he still can.
Find out in today’s video why Liberals are losing in these key ridings and what this means for the federal election.
A new poll conducted by Innovative Research suggests that if an election were held now, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party would lose a majority of the 34 ridings that brought them to power in 2015. This dramatic shift in support indicates a ‘Liberal slaughter,’ according to Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research.
The online poll of 3,500 Canadians conducted between October 5th-31st found that the Conservatives currently have 38% support nationally, compared to just 28% for the Liberals. Among decided voters, the Conservatives had a 14-point lead over the Liberals. The poll found dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government’s performance is high, with 60% of respondents wanting change.
The Conservatives held leads in every region except Atlantic Canada and Quebec. But even in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied. In Quebec, the Liberals trailed the Bloc Québécois by 6 points. The widest gaps were in vote-rich Ontario, where the Conservatives led the Liberals by 13 points, and British Columbia, where the Conservative lead was 21 points.
Lyle stated that the voters who supported the Liberals over the last three elections are now abandoning them, shifting mostly to the Conservatives. To regain these supporters, the Liberals need a three-pronged strategy.
First, they must deliver concrete results on pressing issues like affordability. Canadians are struggling with the rising cost of living, including food, housing, and everyday expenses. But the Liberal government has so far failed to ease this economic pain in any meaningful way.
Second, the Liberals need to define Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives as risky and scary change. With the Conservative leader surging in popularity, defining him negatively will be crucial for Trudeau in the coming months.
Trudeau will try to make the case that Poilievre’s policies would put vital programs like healthcare at risk.
Labeling the Conservatives as representing dangerous change could help shore up progressive voters behind the Liberals. However, there are significant challenges Trudeau would face in trying to negatively define Poilievre and the Conservatives as representing risky change. After six years in power, Trudeau has lost credibility with many voters.
Attacks on Poilievre will merely come across as desperate ploys to cling to power rather than genuine warnings about the Conservative’s policies.
Additionally, Poilievre has cultivated an image as relatable and genuine through his direct outreach to ordinary Canadians about crucial concepts like freedom and affordability.
It will be difficult for Trudeau to convince people that Poilievre is dangerous when the Conservative leader comes across as a champion of the working class. Trudeau, in contrast, is increasingly seen as an out-of-touch elite.
On policy, Trudeau may try to spark fears by claiming Poilievre will radically undermine healthcare and other public services. But people are already angry with Trudeau’s government over its handling of major issues like inflation, housing costs, ethics scandals, and pandemic restrictions. Dire warnings about electing Conservatives will ring hollow when frustration with Liberal mismanagement is already high. Poilievre effectively channels existing animosity against Trudeau, making him resistant to fear-based attacks.
In this climate, going fiercely negative on Poilievre may backfire on Trudeau. Canadians have grown cynical of top-down partisan messaging from Ottawa elites. On the other hand, Poilievre’s approach is resonating strongly, making him difficult to paint as a dangerous choice for change-seeking voters.
And third, Trudeau himself needs to communicate with Canadians, Lyle suggested that Trudeau needs to communicate openly and humbly acknowledge mistakes, like he did at the Freedom Convoy inquiry.
Lyle advised that Trudeau should tell Canadians something along the lines of: “I understand people are frustrated. I got too caught up in various things and lost track of what matters most. But I hear you – I know we need to do better. We have to get back to why you voted Liberal in 2015 – to bring hope and real change that improves people’s lives. I’m committed to mending our ways and delivering on what we promised.”
Essentially, Lyle is saying Trudeau needs to recapture the open, hopeful communication style that worked for him in 2015, admit where he has fallen short, and convince voters he understands their concerns and can be trusted to address them.
However, it is highly unlikely Trudeau would deliver the type of sincere, conciliatory message. Admitting mistakes and humility do not come naturally to Trudeau, as he has shown a consistent pattern of deflecting accountability rather than apologizing. A message saying he lost his way would also undermine Trudeau’s leadership brand as a principled, resolute leader.
Additionally, such an admission would conflict with Trudeau’s activist governance philosophy and policy vision that he remains committed to. Saying he has lost track of his mandate would contradict his steadfast belief in his agenda. Trudeau is also unlikely to give political opponents any ammunition through self-criticism that could increase calls for his resignation.
Finally, from Trudeau’s perspective, his government has governed competently and upheld progressive values. He likely sees no compelling reason that would justify a major course correction or contrite apology. Barring an unprecedented crisis, Trudeau admitting he lost his way and needs to mend his policies remains improbable given his leadership style, brand, philosophy, and political instincts. For the stubborn Trudeau, a moment of humble reflection remains a significant stretch.
Right now, people are angry with the Liberals over a lack of action on affordability, ethics scandals, and a perception that Trudeau is arrogant and out of touch. Poilievre wins them over by tapping into frustrations with patronizing elites and promising radical transformation.
If Trudeau can successfully show he understands voters’ economic pain, cast Poilievre as dangerously ideological, and communicate openly, he may be able to regain lost Liberal ground. But the three-pronged strategy will require flawless execution at a time when public patience for the Liberals is wearing thin.
Lyle explained that a key reason the Liberals won in 2015 was that many Canadians believed the Conservatives did not care about average people. But now, with rising costs of living, perceptions have flipped – people think it’s the Liberals who are making life worse for ordinary Canadians.
Poilievre is taking advantage of this shift, portraying himself as the voice for struggling Canadians who feel ignored by the Liberal government. His message of hope and affordability is resonating.
Former Conservative campaign director Fred DeLorey agreed current polls point to a values realignment, not just a change election. For example, young voters traditionally backed the Liberals but now support Conservatives over issues like inflation and housing costs.
While the next election is still years away, the current data presents major warning signs for the governing Liberals. Justin Trudeau was carried to power in 2015 on a message of hope and change.
But with Canadians now dissatisfied and seeking change after eight years of Liberal government, the political landscape has shifted.
Poilievre is aggressively courting disaffected voters with his affordability-focused messaging. And the Conservatives stand poised to make major gains in Liberal and swing ridings if Trudeau cannot re-energize his party and rebuild support.
After eight long years in power, the latest polls strongly indicate Justin Trudeau is facing the end of the road as Prime Minister. The data shows the political winds have shifted decisively against Trudeau, with voters ready to usher his Liberals out of office.
Pierre Poilievre is riding a wave of discontent with Trudeau’s leadership, effectively positioning himself as the populist alternative. Beset by scandals and perceptions of elitist disconnection from ordinary people, Trudeau seems unable to recapture the hopeful message that propelled his early success.
His credibility is damaged beyond repair in the eyes of many Canadians. With Conservatives now polling strongly in the very regions that handed Trudeau his majority, the writing is on the wall.
It seems that the upcoming election will almost certainly deal a harsh rejection of Trudeau’s government and mark the conclusion of his time as leader of both his party and this country.
