Plot Overview

Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life as backstabbing Liberal MPs plot behind closed doors to replace him. The Liberal fortress is falling apart. Trudeau’s grip on power is slipping as his poll numbers keep sinking lower and lower.

After years of scandals, bossy government, and failed leadership, voters and even Trudeau’s own MPs are completely sick of him.

Sensing the political winds changing direction, Trudeau’s backbenchers have lost faith in their hopeless leader and started scheming to replace him before he drags them down too. As the next election gets closer, Trudeau is desperately trying to cling to power while his liberal team secretly hatches plans against him.

The Coup has already started. Key Liberal MPs are jumping ship, unwilling to go down with Trudeau. The captain is quickly losing control of his mutinous crew.

With the public completely done with Trudeau, replacing him is the only hope for the Liberal Party’s survival. Trudeau now faces a death blow from within as his own ambitious MPs scheme to install a new leader. The Liberal coup is underway. Trudeau’s days as PM are numbered.

Trudeau Ditched By Liberal MPs

Justin Trudeau’s hold on being Prime Minister is getting weaker as his approval ratings keep going down. The most recent polls show Trudeau’s Liberals way behind the Conservatives, with lots of Canadians fed up with his leadership. To make things worse for Trudeau, Liberal members of parliament are jumping ship more and more, not wanting to stick with him when he’s losing support.

The latest instance of this came this week when Tony Van Bynen, the Liberal MP for the important GTA riding of Newmarket-Aurora, announced he won’t run for re-election. Van Bynen bowing out is just the newest sign that Trudeau’s days as Prime Minister are numbered.

Van Bynen said, without directly acknowledging his party’s declining fortunes under Trudeau: “Public service is more than a career, it’s a calling, and my commitment to community doesn’t end with retirement.” Still, the political implications were clear.

Newmarket-Aurora was one of many GTA ridings the Conservatives had targeted as a potential pickup in the next election. The Tories nearly won it from Van Bynen’s Liberals in 2021. With Trudeau tanking in the polls, Van Bynen likely realized his chances of holding the seat were slim.

Rather than face the humiliation of defeat, he chose to withdraw gracefully and spend more time with his family. But his departure is another nail in the coffin for Trudeau’s crumbling Liberal fortress in the GTA.

Van Bynen joins a growing list of Liberal MPs from the region who have announced they won’t run again. The Trudeau defectors include Helena Jaczek, Omar Alghabra and Carolyn Bennett, who have already stepped down. More are expected to follow suit.

The Liberals know their days are numbered in Ottawa and beyond. As Trudeau’s polling hits new lows, his backbenchers are abandoning ship to avoid going down with him.

Trudeau Low Polling Numbers

The latest polling from Mainstreet Research shows the Liberals under Trudeau have sunk to just 25% support nationally. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are surging at 46%. Even Trudeau’s personal approval rating has cratered.

The regional numbers are equally grim for the beleaguered prime minister. In the GTA, the Conservative lead Trudeau’s Liberals by nearly 20 points. And the Conservatives now outpoll the Liberals in every region, including Quebec.

Trudeau’s support has collapsed across nearly every demographic, including those that traditionally backed him strongly. The Conservatives now lead among women and voters over 65, once pillars of Trudeau’s winning coalition. Even visible minorities are increasingly shunning Trudeau.

Strategic voting also can’t save Trudeau anymore. Mainstreet’s poll found very little interest among NDP and Bloc supporters in switching to Liberal just to avoid a Conservative majority government.

Trudeau exhaustion seems to be spreading across all progressive voters now.

With their leader so widely disliked, few Liberal MPs still want to tie themselves to Trudeau. Even if they barely hang on to the next election, they face years stuck in opposition under Trudeau’s ongoing leadership.

Jumping ship now lets these Liberal MPs bow out of politics gracefully rather than stick around just to go down with Trudeau’s slow sinking ship.

Trudeau tried to stop Liberal MPs from leaving by putting in place new rules to protect sitting MPs from having to compete for the Liberal nomination in their ridings.

But with Trudeau’s popularity tanking so badly in the polls, most regular Liberal MPs don’t have much reason to bother meeting those new conditions.

Liberal MPs Miss Nomination Deadline

According to reports, only 89 of 156 Liberal MPs have been nominated for the next election under the party’s new rules. Yet another sign of waning loyalty to Trudeau among his rump of remaining loyalists.

Parker Lund, director of communications for the Liberal Party, in an email to The Hill Times wrote: “Our updated nominations process with important community engagement criteria was launched back in November of 2022 after extensive consultation with grassroots Liberals. As of now, we’ve nominated 89 candidates, and will have more announcements in the weeks and months ahead.”

Nine Trudeau cabinet ministers, including Defence Minister Bill Blair and National Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier, have also failed to meet Trudeau’s nomination requirements. With senior members of Trudeau’s inner circle eyeing the exits, the captain continues rearranging deck chairs on the Liberal Titanic.

Trudeau loyalists insisted his MPs aren’t worried about the looming deadline and nomination challenges. They expect Trudeau to grant extensions to dithering MPs. But this speaks to the weakness of his position. Granting special favors to underperforming backbenchers only breeds more resentment.

Even among the MPs actively preparing to run again, many are simply keeping their heads down until the next election. “I’m running until I’m not,” one anonymous Liberal MP told The Hill Times, perfectly encapsulating the sense of gloom pervading Trudeau’s rump caucus.

The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre haven’t had nearly as many problems getting their MPs to meet nomination requirements. Only 12 out of 117 Tory MPs missed Poilievre’s deadline.

His Conservative MPs don’t face much risk of losing their seats and feel excited about their chances under Poilievre’s leadership. Compare that to Trudeau’s dejected Liberal MPs who know they’re facing defeat.

The positive, united Conservative team under Poilievre is the total opposite of Trudeau’s depressed loyalists right now.

Poilievre has been criss-crossing Canada and drawing huge, energetic crowds – way bigger than the tired events Trudeau puts on. While Conservatives are overflowing with excitement, Trudeau can barely fill a small coffee shop. One of Poilievre’s recent rallies in Toronto brought thousands of cheering supporters.

Even traditionally Liberal parts of Atlantic Canada aren’t safe anymore with Trudeau’s collapse. Polls show the Conservatives leading by 12 points there – unheard of until now. No Liberal area is secure these days.

With Trudeau steering the Liberal ship into the ground, rumors are growing that his own MPs might soon find the courage to dump their failing captain for the sake of saving the party.

Canadians are so utterly fed up with Justin Trudeau that polls show they would literally vote for any other Liberal minister over him.

When asked about potential Liberal leaders to replace Trudeau, respondents were more likely to support Chrystia Freeland (28%), Sean Fraser (27%), or Mark Carney (28%) over the current PM. However, the highest number (31%) indicated they would vote for any unnamed “another Liberal MP.”

The Liberals know they’ll face disastrous election results under Trudeau’s leadership. Even their core supporters are ready to vote Conservative just to kick out the now widely disliked PM.

As the Liberals desperately try to turn around their crashing popularity, it looks like their MPs will soon challenge Trudeau’s leadership rather than face sure defeat with him still in charge.

With Canadians so fed up with Trudeau, swapping him out for virtually any other Liberal seems the only way to save the party from being wiped out in the next election.

Trudeau has stubbornly insisted he’ll stay on as leader no matter how many MPs withdraw support. But it’s hard to imagine even his huge ego can ignore his crumbling inner circle much longer. The Liberal sandcastle Trudeau built is washing away more and more with each terrible poll.

Polls suggest the Liberals could get a small bump if Trudeau stepped down. But new signs this week show that ditching their unpopular leader might not be enough to save the party anymore.

Trudeau rode into office eight years ago on a wave of support for his youthful, progressive message. But the public mood has clearly shifted. After multiple scandals and arrogant governance, Canadians are thoroughly tired of Trudeau.

As the next election gets closer, Trudeau is cutting an increasingly lonely figure as head of his party. With the Conservatives surging in polls and his own team abandoning him, Trudeau’s once unsinkable ship is taking on water fast. Without a miracle, the Liberal Titanic is headed full steam for electoral icebergs it can’t survive hitting.