Richard Tice has big dreams. The Reform UK leader wants to march into Westminster and reshape Britain. He believes his party can break the Conservative and Labour stranglehold on power.
But Tice lives in the shadow of Nigel Farage. The legendary Farage led Reform UK before stepping back. Polls show Farage remains hugely popular with voters. His return could boost Reform UK’s chances in the next election.
Tice says Reform has moved past Farage. He wants to chart his own course to Downing Street. But the numbers tell a different story. Farage would turbocharge Reform UK’s insurgency according to surveys.
So will Farage come back to frontline politics? His allies are urging him to rejoin the fight. For now, Tice projects confidence as he plots his political revolution. But he knows Farage is his secret weapon if Reform UK starts to struggle.
The winds of change are blowing in British politics. Tice aims to ride the storm to power. But he may need help from the master disrupter Farage. Westminster awaits the coming clash. Can Tice topple the old order without his stalwart ally? Or will the tempting Farage return to reshape Britain once more?
British politics is in a state of flux. The Conservative and Labour parties have alternated power for over a century, but some new parties are challenging this long standing dominance.
One such party seeking to disrupt the status quo is Reform UK, previously known as the Brexit Party. Reform UK is now led by businessman Richard Tice.
Tice believes Reform UK can break the stranglehold of the two main parties and potentially propel him to Downing Street within the next decade. It’s a bold claim, but Tice is adamant that voters are fed up with politics as usual.
“I genuinely believe that we are in the dying days of the last Conservative majority government in my lifetime,” he declared in a recent interview. “I view that as a very good thing.”
Tice argues that the Conservatives, currently led by Rishi Sunak, have failed to get a grip on runaway immigration or deliver economic growth as promised. This was highlighted recently by the tragic deaths of 5 migrants who drowned while trying to cross the freezing waters of the English Channel from France in a small boat.
The dangerous journey attempted by the migrants reflects the ongoing inability of the Conservatives to get a handle on illegal immigration across the Channel despite promises to voters to reduce numbers. Just a day earlier, the first crossing of 2024 was recorded after a 27-day gap, showing the issue has not been resolved.
This disaffection provides an opening for Reform UK to swoop in with its own prescription of reduced immigration, lower taxes, and opposing net zero policies.
By peeling away traditional Tory voters, particularly in the party’s former heartlands in northern England, Tice believes Reform UK can force real change.
“We took that approach in 2019 [not standing against sitting Tory MPs] and we were betrayed, and we’re not going to be betrayed again. We’re done with that,” he insisted.
Tice’s vision ultimately depends on reforming the electoral system. Under the existing first-past-the-post rules, it’s difficult for smaller parties to translate votes into Westminster seats. But Tice is convinced that if Reform UK wins millions of votes without representation, it will create irresistible momentum for proportional representation.
And that could pave the way for his party to thrust him into 10 Downing Street. As Tice put it: “Reform could be the biggest party in the House of Commons with proportional representation, no question at all.”
It may seem far-fetched, but Tice genuinely believes he’s on the cusp of a political revolution. However, he does face significant obstacles. Reform UK suffers from a lack of funding and resources compared to the established parties. And Tice himself lacks the public profile and charisma of his predecessor as leader, Nigel Farage.
The skilful Farage was instrumental in delivering Brexit through UKIP and the Brexit Party. While no longer at the helm, he remains a talismanic figure among Reform UK supporters. Polls consistently show the party would get a bump in support if Farage returned as leader.
So could the tempted Farage ride back to Reform UK’s rescue? There are certainly mounting calls from allies for him to return to the fray at the next election.
A recent Survation poll in the Essex seat of Clacton fuelled speculation that Farage could finally make a breakthrough as an MP if he stood under the Reform UK banner. The poll found Farage with a 10 point lead over the sitting Conservative MP if they went head-to-head.
According to the poll, Farage would secure 37% of the vote compared to just 27% for Tory Giles Watling. Even accounting for undecided voters, Farage still held a 7 point advantage.
The result will increase pressure on Farage to throw his hat into the ring again. Clacton has significance for him as a Brexit stronghold, after he won the seat for UKIP in a 2014 by-election. That victory helped push David Cameron into calling the fateful EU referendum.
However, close ally Arron Banks revealed that Farage is reluctant to stand again after failing in 7 previous attempts over the years. Farage is also mindful that campaigning nationally alongside contesting a seat could spread himself too thin.
But with Reform UK gathering momentum, might the temptation prove too much? Tice argues it’s unlikely his predecessor will stand anywhere, but with Farage you can never say never. He remains the ace up Tice’s sleeve if Reform UK’s challenge to the status quo starts to falter.
Richard Tice faces an uphill battle to achieve his goal of becoming Prime Minister compared to Nigel Farage’s chances if he returned as Reform UK’s leader.
While both Tice and Farage aim to disrupt the two-party system, polls consistently show Farage remains far more popular and recognizable with voters.
A recent Survation poll showed Farage with a significant lead over the Conservative candidate in the Clacton constituency, whereas Tice lacks comparable name recognition.
Tice argues Reform UK has grown beyond relying on Farage and points to the party’s expanded slate of vetted candidates. However, the poll numbers do not lie – Farage would provide an instant boost to Reform UK’s election prospects. His prominent role in delivering Brexit gives him credibility and star power with disaffected voters that the relatively unknown Tice struggles to match.
While Tice’s ambition is admirable, the data suggests Reform UK’s chances in the next election would be significantly higher with Farage back at the helm. Tice has big shoes to fill if he wants to achieve his lofty goals without the talismanic Farage by his side.
Voter allegiance to the two main British parties appears to be fracturing. Turnout has declined for decades as disillusionment sets in, especially amongst the young. This reflects a turbulent period ahead in British politics.
The disillusionment spans the political spectrum. On the left, many progressives feel let down by Labour’s ideological drift under Keir Starmer. The Conservatives are hemorrhaging support not just to Reform UK on the right, but also to the resurgent Liberal Democrats in the center.
Against this backdrop of voter discontent, Reform UK spies an opening. However, capitalizing on public dissatisfaction will require delicate political positioning. The party must find a way to appeal to alienated voters across the political spectrum without seeming to pander.
On hot-button issues like immigration, multiculturalism and transgender rights, Tice has been outspoken in criticizing the prevailing orthodoxies. Whether this resonates as plain-speaking truth or inflammatory rhetoric remains to be seen. The same applies to Tice’s views on topics like healthcare and integrating minority communities. Groups like Hope Not Hate have highlighted Reform members expressing anti-Muslim sentiment, homophobia and climate change denialism.
Reform UK are certainly not afraid to say the unsayable in their quest to shatter the status quo. But there is a fine line between refreshingly candid politics and populist rabble-rousing. Should Reform UK’s challenge falter, their rhetoric may come back to haunt Tice’s ambitions.
Yet for now, Tice remains remarkably bullish about Reform UK’s prospects. While some may dismiss his prediction of becoming Prime Minister within a decade as fanciful, he is adamant that the tectonic plates of British politics are shifting.
In Tice’s view, the hourglass is emptying on the two-party monopoly that has dominated Westminster for over a century. Whether he is right remains to be seen. But the entrenched forces Tice proposes to defeat should underestimate him at their peril. His zeal is infectious to Reform UK supporters who believe his diagnosis of a broken status quo is accurate.
The next election will provide the first real litmus test of Tice’s prophecy. Reform UK plan to stand candidates across the country to maximize their impact. Even if the breakthrough does not quite materialize this time, Tice will likely claim any uptick in seats and votes as proof his political insurgency is gathering momentum.
One thing’s for sure – it would be complacent to assume the era of Conservative and Labour dominance will continue indefinitely. Public appetite for something different is growing. While Tice’s ambition may seem improbable, he would argue that Brexit itself was once considered a pipedream.
Regardless of your political persuasion, few could deny that the prominence of Reform UK and figures like Tice and Farage reflect genuine voter discontent. Whether they have the answers remains hotly debated. But the desire for change is real.
In Tice’s eyes, the question is not whether the two-party system will fall but when. He and Reform UK are convinced they can win the evolution, one vote at a time. Their challenge may flicker or catch light. Either way, the reverberations seem sure to be felt for many elections to come.
