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One Year Out: The Odds Stack Against Biden as Voters Sour on His Presidency

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With polling numbers at an all-time low and many political analysts and key figures throwing in their predictions for 2024, does Joe Biden really have a chance against Republican front-runner Donald Trump?

One year away from Election Day, many are wondering how the showdown will play out, especially in comparison to the scarily close Democrat win back in 2020.

In the middle of several escalating conflicts across the globe, as well as a border crisis on U.S. soil, Biden’s approval rates have dropped so drastically that even Democrats have been frantically searching for an alternative candidate for their party.

With everything at stake and only one year left until Americans have to decide, will Biden be able to secure more votes than Trump in their final showdown?

While he seemed pretty optimistic  back in April, when he first announced that he plans on running for president again, things aren’t looking too good for Biden after three rocky years with him in office.

With one year left until the next US presidential election, recent polls from The New York Times and Siena College, released on Sunday, the exact one-year mark away from Election Day, show that President Joe Biden may very well be in big trouble. The polls show that as Biden trails former President Donald Trump in some important states, many voters seem unhappy with how things are going.

Trump led Biden in four of the six swing states, which could reasonably be won by either candidate. Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan, and trailed Biden in just one state: Wisconsin. 

Back in 2020, Trump actually lost all six states, which makes this upcoming election all the more interesting.

Trump’s leads over Biden in the polls were all by at least 5 percentage points, while Biden’s advantage in Wisconsin was by only 2 percentage points, which can be considered within the poll’s margin of error.

That’s definitely not the only reason pointing to the fact that Biden might be in trouble, but another CBS News and YouGov national poll released on the same day showed that Trump is leading Biden with 51 percent to 48 percent, which is an exciting turn of events considering Biden’s 51 percent to 47 percent win over Trump back in the 2020 election. The tables seem to have turned, this time not in Biden’s favor.

This recent polling essentially indicates that if an election were to be held today, it seems that Trump would win over Biden.

This leads us to the question – where did it all go wrong for Biden, and how did we go from him being the Democrat favorite, to members of his own party turning against the prospect of him running for president again?

In response to the recent polls, Presidential historian Jon Meacham believed that the current state of politics is essentially a “test of citizenship.”

In Meacham’s eyes, Democrats should end up voting for Biden just because he’ll never be a worse candidate for them than Trump is; however, is that really what most Democrats think? Has the bar reached an all-time low? Especially when Democrats are quite literally scampering to push an alternative Democratic candidate, possibly the younger, fresher face; Dean Philips?

It seems that many American voters are critical of Biden and are fuelled by doubts about his handling of the economy, concerns about his age, as well as general discontent on international issues, such as his handling of escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Usually, American voters tend to prioritize domestic concerns, such as the economy, as opposed to candidates’ stances on foreign policy. However, recent pollings show that Biden faces widespread disapproval across a range of issues, both domestic and international.

A recent Fox News poll found that most Americans, 62 percent, disapprove of how Biden is handling the economy, with only 37% approving, and overall, 72% of voters are dissatisfied with the way the country is being run. And in the New York Times poll, Trump got better marks on the economy, regardless of gender, age, education, or income level, across the entire electorate. 

The polling also indicates that more voters feel as though they would be financially better off with Donald Trump a president and that Biden is failing to win over Democrats in the same way that Trump has won over Republicans.

On the other hand, it seems that Biden administration officials live in a parallel universe, as people like the White House press secretary and Vice President Kamala Harris have repeatedly shown their support for Biden’s economic approach, even going as far as claiming his approach has helped Americans. 

However, for many Democrats, that doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case. Several Democrats and White House members have reportedly told NBC News that they disapprove of the term “Bidenomics,” a term coined by the administration to promote their economic policies Several Democrats have argued that the term could possibly be doing more harm than good, but it’s safe to say that Democrats have more important things to worry about than a silly marketing term.

Another Democrat chose to speak out on the matter, with a top Democratic political expert and former Obama strategist turning to X, formerly Twitter, to voice his concerns with Biden’s presidential race. He said that Biden needs to carefully think about whether he should run again, and consider the fact that him running again just might not be in the country’s best interest, but more in his own personal favor.

So it seems that Biden is now in big trouble, and the chances of him winning the election next year are pretty slim, according to several new polls, so what is the Biden administration planning to do in the year he has left?

In a recent strategy memo, Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodrigues, said her team is preparing for the general election, which she says “will be very clos  e.” She said the message Biden used to win in 2020 is still popular with voters and will still be central to his campaign this time.

The memo argues that next year’s election “will be a clear choice for the American people,” and even predicts that many voters will end up rejecting “MAGA extremism.” It suggests that voters will have to like Biden more due to his administration’s accomplishments, such as legislative achievements, which include large bills on health care and green energy.

In response to recent polling, the Biden campaign started trying to change how people see Biden in September with a 4-month, $25 million campaign advertising in battleground states, according to Chavez. They focused on Hispanic and Black media to reach those voters earlier. They were also testing campaign messages that would be important in the election to contrast Biden against Republicans.

The memo even said that the extreme MAGA views that now define the Republican Party will make it hard for Republicans to win key swing states in the general election, which has now been proven false given the recent polling. Whether that will change in the upcoming year or not is definitely uncertain.

Something the memo did not mention, however, is concerns about Biden’s age. An August AP-NORC poll found that 77 percent of Americans, including 69 percent of Democrats, do not think that 80-year-old Biden is old enough to effectively serve four more years as president, among many of the reasons putting the possibility of Biden’;’s reelection at risk.

Finally, as we approach next year’s pivotal election, it’s clear that Biden faces an uphill battle to regain voters’ trust and confidence. While his campaign expresses optimism in their strategy, recent polls suggest Americans are  sick and tired of the current head of state. 

It seems that America will not tolerate Biden any longer. The question now is: if it’s not going to be Biden, is it really going to be Trump?

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