The Liberal-NDP supply and confidence deal was meant to be a match made in political heaven – by propping up Trudeau’s minority government, the NDP could advance their progressive agenda.
But two years on, with an election looming, Jagmeet Singh seems to be getting cold feet. The NDP leader recently ruled out any possibility of forming a coalition with the Liberals after the next election.
Singh’s surprise about-face raises a critical question: is he genuinely rejecting greater cooperation with the Grits, or simply staging a show to placate disgruntled NDP supporters?
His incentives may shift dramatically if the election produces another minority government.
For now, Singh’s bold stance has implications for all major parties as they jockey for position ahead of the upcoming campaign.
One thing is clear – with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives riding high, the path ahead looks rocky for both Trudeau and Singh.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh raised eyebrows when he unequivocally ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition government with the Liberals after the next federal election. “That’s off the table,” Singh stated plainly in a year-end interview, despite the two parties cooperating closely in the current minority parliament.
His bold comments represent a notable departure from the openness to an alliance that Singh previously signaled. This surprise stance prompts the question – is Singh’s rejection of a coalition a genuine intention for the NDP going forward, or simply a political ploy to placate frustrated NDP supporters?
Singh’s firm stance likely aims to reassure New Democrats skeptical of the party’s cozy relationship with the Liberals under their confidence and supply agreement signed in 2022. That deal saw the NDP promise parliamentary support to the minority Liberal government in exchange for action on NDP priorities.
While it has achieved some NDP policy goals like dental care, many party stalwarts worry the cooperation compromises the NDP’s progressive principles. Singh’s clear rejection of a future coalition with the Liberals signals continued NDP independence. As he stated, “I can say with a lot of clarity that [the Liberals] could be doing a lot more to help people.”
However, Singh’s surprise comments could possibly be just for political show rather than representing genuine intentions down the line. With the next election approaching, Singh wants to sharpen distinctions between the NDP and Liberals in voter’s minds.
Campaigning on unique NDP ideas could attract more support. An absolutist anti-coalition posture, even if temporary, provides that differentiation. Singh is also aware of mounting frustration among NDP loyalists over his perceived alignment with the Liberals.
Firmly ruling out a coalition reassures those skeptical supporters and prevents voter bleed to other parties on the left. As such, Singh’s stance may be more a savvy political play than a committed promise.
Right now, with an election still a ways off, Singh can afford to take a hardline stance ruling out a Liberal-NDP coalition. This allows him to sharpen distinctions between the NDP and Liberals and reassure skeptical NDP supporters in the short term.
However, Singh’s calculus could shift dramatically if the next election ends with no party winning a clear majority of seats. At that point, the parliamentary math may require the NDP to work closely with either the Liberals or Conservatives to maintain a stable government and avoid a new election.
This could force Singh to walk back his current anti-coalition rhetoric when the political dynamics demand cooperation and compromise. If the NDP holds the balance of power after the next election, Singh may decide that pragmatism outweighs his previous campaign statements. Joining in coalition with the Liberals might become palatable if it allows the NDP to advance their agenda from within government.
So while an absolutist stance on coalitions suits Singh now, he may change his tune post-election if the minority government requires his party to work closely with another party. His incentives will shift from contrasting with the Liberals to negotiating the best deal possible. And that could mean setting aside bold talk of NDP independence in favor of a formal power-sharing agreement.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau left his options open when asked about a potential Liberal-NDP coalition. He avoided speculation, saying “Let’s let Canadians decide what kind of Parliament they want…and then we’ll see.”
Trudeau seems unwilling to definitively rule out any post-election scenario, instead taking a wait-and-see approach. That suggests if governing dynamics require it after the election, Trudeau would consider a more formal Liberal-NDP alignment despite Singh’s current posturing.
For now, Singh’s surprise rejection of a future coalition mostly aims to provide temporary relief to skeptical NDP supporters. It signals that under their current supply and confidence deal, the NDP will continue pressing for progressive policies while maintaining independence.
Singh aims to alleviate concerns that the New Democrats have become a de-facto junior member of a Liberal governing coalition. However, he might face difficulty regaining the support he lost by teaming up with Trudeau.
While Singh can try to reassure loyal New Democrats for now, the ultimate judgment will come at the ballot box. Voters who felt spurned by the Liberal deal may not be so quick to return to the NDP fold.
The Liberal-NDP supply and confidence deal signed in 2022 represented a major political gamble for both parties. Nearly two years on, serious questions emerge about whether that gamble will pay off electorally.
Polls show neither Trudeau nor Singh have benefited much so far from their close cooperation. However, Singh in particular faces backlash from parts of his traditional labor base. Many union workers feel betrayed by Singh’s acquiescence to Liberal policies they dislike.
This provides an opening for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to peel away NDP labor support by portraying the party as beholden to urban elite priorities rather than workers’ interests.
For the Singh, frustration among labor union members over the Liberal deal represents a major vulnerability headed into the next election. Long-time NDP voters in rural areas and resource industries feel ignored as the party embraces progressive causes.
Poilievre is capitalizing masterfully, tailoring the Conservative message to disaffected NDP union workers who feel sidelined culturally and economically by Ottawa elites. His attacks casting the NDP as woke urbanites out of touch with labor seem to be hitting home.
If Poilievre can peel off even a small chunk of Singh’s union base, it could make a major difference in close ridings.
If the Jagmeet Singh cannot find ways to reassure organized labor that the party still has his back, declining enthusiasm among blue-collar union members could spell serious trouble on election day.
For the governing Liberals, their confidence and supply deal with the NDP was meant to provide stability in parliament. But its political dividends so far seem minimal. Perhaps worse, the NDP’s sudden rejection of a future coalition deal suggests inherent fragility in the alliance.
Trudeau’s best bet is to keep Jagmeet Singh by his side a while longer, but this also has limited leverage. If the NDP decides it has gotten all it can from cooperating with the Liberals, Singh could withdraw support at any time, potentially triggering an election.
With both the Liberal and NDP brands stagnant in polls, Trudeau cannot count on his alliance with the NDP to improve political fortunes.
Meanwhile, the NDP is looking to weigh remaining loyal voters versus distancing itself from the Liberals as an to re-energize its base before the next election.
For both parties, the political gamble of cooperation has yet to pay off. With Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives riding high, the Liberals and NDP face real challenges to motivate supporters – and neither seems to have found the answer quite yet.
In conclusion, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives appear to have momentum heading into the next election. Poilievre is successfully targeting frustrated NDP labor voters, while the Liberal-NDP supply and confidence deal has so far failed to benefit either party politically.
Though Singh has firmly rejected an election coalition, his incentives could shift if the result is a minority government. For now, the Conservatives are capitalizing on populist discontent and political realignment among union voters.
With neither the Singh nor Trudeau gaining ground, Poilievre is well-positioned to fight the upcoming campaign from a dominant position. The path ahead looks difficult for both Trudeau and Singh as Poilievre rides high in the polls.
