Overview

Tensions erupted in the South China Sea this week as Chinese ships blocked and assaulted a Philippine resupply vessel near Ayungin Shoal, sparking outrage from Manila and warnings from Beijing. 

The dangerous confrontation was the latest flashpoint in the escalating dispute between the two nations over the strategic waters. 

Philippine officials accused China’s coast guard of ramming and spraying high-powered water cannons at the civilian ship, causing damage and injuries as it attempted to bring food and personnel to Philippine troops stationed on a grounded warship at the shoal. 

China denounced the mission as illegal and vowed harsh retaliation against any perceived challenges to its claims. 

With neither side backing down, the risky resupply runs have become a bellwether for potential war between the rivals vying for control of one of the world’s most critical shipping zones.

History of Dispute

The long-running territorial dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea continues to escalate, with recent Chinese actions against Philippine resupply missions prompting condemnation from Manila and its allies. 

The Ayungin Shoal in particular has become a flashpoint, as China seeks to prevent the Philippines from maintaining a grounded warship that serves as an outpost there.

In March 2024, the Philippines was in the process of sending personnel and supplies to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship that was deliberately run aground on Ayungin Shoal in 1999. The shoal, also known as Second Thomas Shoal, falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone in an area Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.

China, however, lays claim to nearly the entire South China Sea under its ambiguous “nine-dash line,” including Ayungin Shoal and the broader Spratly Islands chain where it is located. Beijing refers to the shoal as Ren’ai Reef and insists it has always been Chinese territory.

According to Philippine military reports, several China Coast Guard vessels blocked and harassed the Philippine civilian ship MV Unaizah May 4 during the resupply mission. The CCG ships maneuvered dangerously, spraying high-powered water cannons and apparently attempting to ram the Unaizah May 4.

Philippine officials said the Chinese water cannons damaged the wooden-hulled resupply vessel and caused injuries to navy personnel onboard. But smaller Philippine boats were ultimately able to evade the CCG blockade and deliver personnel and cargo to the grounded Sierra Madre.

China ‘s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Statement

In a statement, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson accused the Philippines of “intruding” into China’s waters and said the CCG took “necessary measures” to obstruct the mission. The spokesperson warned Manila to “bear all potential consequences” if it “insists on going its own way.”

The Ayungin Shoal incident came just weeks after a similar CCG blockade against the Unaizah May 4 in early March. That earlier standoff also involved Chinese water cannon fire which slightly injured several Philippine sailors and damaged the ship.

Philippine officials expressed outrage over the “dangerous and provocative” harassment of their resupply boats operating well within the country’s exclusive economic zone. The National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea, which oversees maritime operations, slammed China’s “unprovoked aggression” and “hollow claims to peace and adherence to international law.”

Global Concern Over China Aggression

The United States, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and others also voiced concern over China’s actions against its smaller neighbor. The U.S. State Department invoked America’s defense commitments to the Philippines under their Mutual Defense Treaty, which covers attacks on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.

China’s Defense Ministry responded by alleging the Philippines was attempting to bolster its “illegal occupation” of Ren’ai Reef through resupply missions to the Sierra Madre. It warned Manila to halt activities that could “escalate the situation” and to avoid “challenging China’s bottom line.”

The Ayungin Shoal standoffs represent just the latest flare-ups of tensions between China and the Philippines over their competing claims. In 2016, a case brought by Manila resulted in an international tribunal ruling that invalidated most of China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea. Beijing refused to recognize the decision.

China has aggressively asserted its stance through a constant paramilitary presence around Philippine-occupied islands and reefs. Its navy, coast guard, and maritime militia vessels have repeatedly harassed and blocked Filipino ships and fishing boats.

In many cases, the Chinese ships have risked collisions. They have also aimed laser pointers at Filipino sailors, disturbing their vision. These incidents appear designed to gradually wear down Philippine resolve without triggering full-blown conflict with the U.S.

China Uses The Small Provocations Strategy

China seems to be pursuing a strategy of incremental advances and small provocations to achieve its objectives while staying below the threshold of drawing American military intervention. Its continual harassment of Philippine resupply missions relies on paramilitary vessels from the coast guard and maritime militia rather than the full force of its navy.

These frequent standoffs stop short of direct armed confrontation, even as Chinese ships aggressively employ dangerous maneuvers like ramming Philippine boats or firing water cannons at them. The goal appears to slowly erode Manila’s fortitude through painstaking attrition.

Similarly, Chinese naval craft have aimed blinding lasers at Philippine sailors and buzzed vessels in close flybys. These types of low-level disturbances keep the Philippines off-balance but do not provide a clear casus belli for U.S. retaliation against China despite American security commitments.

However, China may deliberately be testing the limits to probe how far it can press its claims using gray zone coercion. Its incremental advances condition the region to accept heightened Chinese dominance and militarization in the South China Sea.

These small provocations may serve to distract as China prepares more significant military moves to consolidate its control. Once Beijing feels able to prevent effective American intervention, it may pursue a more aggressively expansionist agenda.

For now, China seems content to chip away at the status quo using selective force just shy of sparking potential war with the United States. But its long-term intentions remain obscured behind the smokescreen of repeated low-level friction.

The Philippines has vowed it will not be deterred from conducting maritime operations and resupply missions within its exclusive economic zone. But its ships and sailors remain severely overmatched by China’s massive coast guard and naval fleets.

With neither side willing to compromise their claims, the situation remains fraught with the potential for miscalculation and escalation into military clashes. The ramshackle Sierra Madre outpost perched atop Ayungin Shoal is unlikely to be the last flashpoint as China presses its advantage against its smaller, weaker neighbors.

The U.S. Reaffirms Their Commitments

The United States under the Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitments to Philippine security, but remains cautious of being drawn into open conflict with China. Meanwhile, other regional powers like Japan and Australia are also navigating how to balance Chinese aggression with stability.

With trillions of dollars in annual trade passing through the South China Sea, freedom of navigation in the disputed waters remains a global priority. As China seeks to solidify its dominance in what it considers its sovereign domain, the risks of unrest will continue to shadow one of the world’s most strategically vital flashpoints.

The Philippines and fellow claimants must weigh how to counter China’s ambitions while avoiding triggering a destructive clash of arms. As Manila’s resupply ships once again test China’s blockade tactics around the Sierra Madre, the stakes only grow higher as the two rivals teeter on the brink.

And on a wider scale, China’s assertive actions against its neighbors in disputes over the South China Sea have raised concerns about its ambitions as a rising superpower and how it will wield its influence in the region going forward. As Beijing intensifies its presence in the strategic seaway through military drills, naval patrols, and the construction of artificial islands, many see it aiming to dominate the waters in disregard of international laws and norms.

The Philippines and other claimants in Southeast Asia find themselves on the frontlines against an increasingly bold and confrontational China determined to secure control over territories it considers its sovereign domain. These smaller nations feel backed into a corner, confronting severe power asymmetry and limited options against their giant neighbor.

Beyond just the South China Sea, anxieties grow that China seeks to supplant the United States as the primary shaper of the regional order in the Asia-Pacific and even globally. Its provocative behavior fans suspicions that Beijing will not abide by the established rules-based system if inconvenient to its ambitions. This poses profound concerns about destabilization should China continue acting unilaterally and coercively.

How the United States, Japan, Australia, India and other democracies respond to China’s aggression will dictate balances of power and stability for generations to come. An Asia dominated by Chinese military and economic primacy would reshape economies and security landscapes. But rivals also risk friction and conflict if relations spiral into a new Cold War paradigm.

The South China Sea has emerged as a bellwether for how China intends to achieve its “great rejuvenation” as an ascendant force on the global stage. For the Philippines and smaller neighbors, managing China’s power and ambitions will require unity, wisdom, and likely painful compromises. The alternative may be living under the shadow of Chinese regional hegemony.