Young voters, longtime Democratic stalwarts, are breaking in droves for Trump. Meanwhile, soaring inflation and immigration inaction have decimated Biden’s standing among Hispanic voters in the southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.
Cracks are splitting open in the Midwest, too. In Pennsylvania, Biden’s hometown appeal is eroding fast. And in Michigan, cratering support among Black and Muslim voters spotlights a broader enthusiasm crisis.
As Biden’s coalition frays, Trump is there to pick up the pieces. The former president has fortified his base while attracting disgruntled Democrats.
Biden’s dire approval ratings indicate a country disillusioned with his leadership. Independent challengers like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stand eager to fill the void. Even whispers of a centrist unity ticket speak to instability within Biden’s party.
The president faces a raging storm, and the 2024 forecast is bleak. Once-secure terrain now looks treacherous as voter realignment accelerates.
President Biden’s poll numbers have been steadily declining over the past several months, causing concern among Democrats about his chances in 2024. According to recent polls analyzed by Politico, former President Trump now leads Biden in national polls as well as in key swing states that Biden won in 2020.
Biden’s support among young voters has plummeted to the single digits in polls by m, Fox News, and Morning Consult. Shockingly, Trump now leads Biden among young voters in an NBC News poll – a group that has traditionally been a strong Democratic voting bloc. This erosion of support among youth does not bode well for Biden.
Beyond losing ground among young people, Biden trails Trump in important swing states such as Arizona and Michigan. Both states went for Trump in 2016 before flipping to support Biden in 2020. However, Trump’s leads in current polling show that he could flip them back into the Republican column in 2024.
Adding to Biden’s challenges are third-party candidates who threaten to siphon votes from both him and Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Cornel West, and Jill Stein are all running or considering Independent or Third Party bids. While they may draw some votes from Trump, their liberal positions mostly threaten to undercut Biden’s left flank.
The emergence of these independent options has prompted speculation about a possible centrist “unity ticket.” Organizations like No Labels have suggested fielding a bipartisan presidential ticket in 2024 to provide disenchanted voters an alternative to the two-party system. Whether this materializes or not, the possibility reveals dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump.
In the last few weeks, polls have only brought more troubling signs for Biden’s political standing. His approval ratings continue to sag, hitting new lows of 38% in the FiveThirtyEight average and 40% in the RealClearPolitics average. For an incumbent president less than a year out from Election Day, these abysmal approval ratings are highly alarming.
At the same time, Trump’s polling numbers are steadily improving. He now garners support in the 46-47% range in head-to-head matchups with Biden – close to his actual vote share in the 2020 election. This shows Trump’s base of support has not eroded, while Biden’s has steadily declined.
Some polls that do not include undecided voters show Trump earning an outright majority over Biden. While methodologically questionable this far out from the voting day, it still demonstrates Biden’s weakness compared to Trump. Even polls that do include undecided voters have Trump’s vote share rising.
Swing state polls also hold un-promising signs for Biden, despite his campaign spending millions on ads to boost his image. The New York Times/Siena polls showing Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are backed up by similar Trump advantages in swing state polls by Morning Consult and others.
Trump leads in states like Arizona by 8 points and Michigan by 5 points in recent polls, which suggests Biden is in real trouble in areas he needs to win. These are not likely statistical blips but real indicators of Biden’s fading prospects if the election were held today.
Winning back Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be crucial yet challenging for Biden as voter sentiment shifts.
In Arizona, Biden was able to win in 2020 by gaining support from Latino voters, who make up a sizable portion of the electorate. But his economic message is falling flat with crucial voting blocs in the state today, including Arizona’s immigrant population.
High inflation under Biden’s administration is a major concern for residents struggling with the rising costs of living. This economic discontent appears to be shifting voter sentiment against Biden.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent bid could further hurt Biden with Arizona Latinos. Kennedy may siphon off voters Biden desperately needs. With Kennedy dividing the electorate, polls show Trump now leading Biden by around 5 points in Arizona.
Similar dynamics threaten Biden in Nevada, another state with a sizeable Latino population won by very slim margins in 2020.
The polls out of Nevada paint a grim picture for Biden’s reelection hopes. Surveys show Biden trailing Trump by anywhere from 3 to 11 percentage points in the state. The RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Biden behind Trump by 4 points in Nevada.
While Biden was able to narrowly defeat Trump there in 2020, his standing has deteriorated. A majority of Nevada voters, 54 percent according to a CNN poll, now disapprove of Biden’s job performance as president.
As a chronicler of Nevada politics, Jon Ralston assessed in The Atlantic, “Joe Biden’s standing in Nevada probably isn’t as bad as polling suggests. But Democrats should still be worried.” Biden and the Democrats cannot take the state for granted in 2024.
In Georgia, Biden is losing African-American support critical to his 2020 victory. But his support in Georgia seems to be declining. Despite Democrats controlling the Senate partly thanks to Georgia voters, the failure to pass voting rights legislation has hampered enthusiasm.
With Trump retaining widespread white rural support, Biden cannot afford reduced black turnout in Georgia’s cities. But polls already show Trump ahead by around 6 points, indicative of Biden’s fading prospects and the absence of renewed enthusiasm from African-American voters.
The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin also look more favorable for Trump than in 2020.
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s home-state advantage may be weakening. Despite Biden’s local roots, recent polls show him trailing Trump by around 3 percentage points on average. An Emerson poll has Trump up 43% to 46% among registered voters.
Biden hoped his economic messaging would resonate in Pennsylvania as it did in 2020. But with inflation high, his approval rating stands at just 39% in the state per Quinnipiac. Biden appears to be losing his home state edge as the race tightens.
In Michigan, Biden’s support with Arab American and Muslim voters has dropped substantially amidst the Israel-Palestine conflict. Polling indicates Biden’s standing with these groups has fallen sharply since 2020.
Turnout among Arab Americans and Muslims, as well as young urban voters, may prove decisive in Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Biden is essentially tied with Trump. Democrats are hoping abortion politics and redistricting will give them an edge. But Biden himself does not generate as much voter enthusiasm.
If Trump is not the nominee, polls show Biden has even more ground to make up. Marquette polling has Biden losing Wisconsin to Nikki Haley by 9 points.
Wisconsin will be a battleground challenge for Biden in 2024 as he tries to replicate his previous success there. Wisconsin remains a true toss-up, with neither candidate having a clear upper hand.
In all six battlegrounds, Biden confronts shifting political currents among the key blocs that powered his 2020 victory. Declining support among Latinos, black voters, and youth reflects Democratic dissatisfaction. Combined with Biden’s below-average economic approval ratings, Trump has managed to position himself ahead in most polls.
Most concerning for Biden is that Trump leads in direct head-to-head polling matchups, without third-party contenders. Independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West could peel away disaffected Democrats to Biden’s left, while Jill Stein offers a third-party option.
These alternatives give Biden-weary voters an outlet, further complicating his path. Centrist voters may also gravitate to a unity ticket. Biden could face additional fragmentation from third-party candidates in an already polarized electorate.
In sum, Biden faces clear polling disadvantages versus Trump, as well as the rise of independent challengers ahead of 2024. His declining approval ratings show voters have soured on his leadership.
Meanwhile, Trump has maintained his base and expanded it as Biden’s support collapses. Without a significant change in course, Biden appears poised for a difficult reelection fight. But with growing divides emerging across the political spectrum, even if Biden manages to reverse his fortunes, the 2024 election is likely a contentious and hard-fought political battle.
