The verdict is in – President Biden has already lost his bid for reelection in 2024, at least according to current polling. Despite the next presidential election still being many months away, Biden finds himself trailing badly against potential Republican opponents.
With his approval sinking to abysmal new lows, Donald Trump surging ahead in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, and voters exhibiting broad discontent with the sitting president’s leadership, the writing is on the wall for Biden’s political future.
Barring a miracle, his dreams of a second term are quickly slipping away, as polls across critical swing states show him well behind and American voters clamoring for a change in direction.
The numbers don’t lie – Biden is on course for defeat in 2024.
The 2024 presidential election is still months away, but polls are already predicting trouble for Joe Biden if he ends up facing Donald Trump once again.
A new poll by The Wall Street Journal puts Trump ahead of Biden 47% to 43% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. This is the first major poll to show Trump with an advantage over the current president.
Biden’s approval rating has also taken a nosedive according to the poll, with only 37% of respondents satisfied with his performance so far. Over the weekend, Democratic presidential candidate Dean Phillips warned that Trump will retake the White House in 2024 unless Democrats nominate someone other than Biden. He believes voters are fed up with Biden insisting the economy is doing well when so many Americans are struggling.
The poll reflects Phillips’ concern, especially among disaffected Democrats. 55% of this group says Biden’s policies have negatively impacted them personally. Despite unemployment rates at historic lows, two-thirds think the economy has declined over Biden’s term so far. Another poll shows 76% believe their income is failing to keep pace with inflation and 62% rate the economy as outright poor.
Trump’s lead over Biden jumps to six points if a third-party candidate enters the race, the poll finds. Up to five independents could run and collectively win 17% of the vote. Robert Kennedy Jr., who has announced an independent bid, already polls at 8% support. Cornel West is also running under the People’s Party banner and likely siphoning votes from Biden.
Over the weekend, centrist Democratic Senator Joe Manchin jokingly hinted he could also jump into the race, saying voters want “somebody younger” who “doesn’t look a day over 70” instead of the 77-year-old Biden. Manchin is one name being considered for the bipartisan “No Labels” ticket taking shape as an alternative for voters disillusioned with both Biden and Trump.
Other potential “No Labels” candidates like former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan pose a real threat to peel away centrist support from Biden.
The president is also losing ground with the Democratic left because of his unwavering support for Israel against Hamas. Muslim voters in key swing states like Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have threatened to abandon Biden under the social media hashtag #AbandonBiden unless he backs a ceasefire in Gaza.
The sole bright spot for the president is Mitt Romney not ruling out voting Democrat in 2024. Romney represents skeptical mainstream Republicans concerned about Trump’s authoritarian rhetoric.
At a recent town hall event, Trump said he would not act as a dictator if elected in 2024, “except for Day One.” Comments like that lead Romney to describe Trump as “dangerous for the country” and could sway some GOP moderates toward Biden. But polling in critical swing states like Michigan and Georgia shows Trump maintaining his advantage.
New polls in both Midwest and Southern battlegrounds reveal broad majorities holding negative views of Biden’s leadership. In Georgia, which Biden barely flipped blue in 2020, voters favor Trump by 49% to 44% over the sitting president. The margin widens to 50% for Trump versus 40% for Biden in Michigan, which Biden had won easily in the previous elections.
In both states, the number of undecided voters is equal to or greater than the gap between Trump and Biden. The two are clearly the frontrunners to become their parties’ nominees next year. Biden has struggled to excite other Democrats to challenge him while Trump dominates the Republican field with GOP candidates yet to defeat him for the party’s crown.
Trump’s edge mainly comes from strong support among voters who sat out 2020, besting Biden by 26 points among them in Georgia and 40 points in Michigan. But Trump also wins over more 2020 voters than Biden does in a hypothetical 2024 matchup. This indicates enthusiasm deficits for both candidates.
Majorities in both Michigan and Georgia believe Biden’s policies have damaged the national economy. This includes about one-quarter of Democrats who disapprove of Biden’s job performance and don’t think his economic plans have helped. The president has launched ads in Michigan touting his support for small businesses and the middle class.
But polls show voters dissatisfied with Biden’s leadership, policies, relatability, and even his physical and mental fitness. Majorities in both states say he lacks the qualities they want in a president regarding his agenda, understanding everyday Americans’ struggles, and his sharpness and stamina.
Biden struggles most with younger voters who do not think he embodies their vision for a president. Only about one in 10 under age 45 in both states view his policies or ability to empathize with average Americans as exactly what they want to see in the White House.
Biden trails Trump by double-digits among under 45 voters who could abandon Democrats next year after overwhelmingly backing the party in recent elections. While over 90% of older Democratic voters stick with Biden, he only retains around 80% of younger ones in both Michigan and Georgia.
On specific issues, voters side with Democrats on abortion rights but Republicans on immigration. They are split in Michigan but lean slightly Democratic in Georgia on which party they trust more on democracy. About one-quarter trust neither party on those issues.
In Georgia, voters approve of Trump despite him facing criminal charges over election interference in the state by 52% to 47%, with nearly half saying it should disqualify him from the presidency if proven true.
About the same percentage of Michigan voters agree those charges would be disqualifying for Trump. However, large majorities of Republican primary voters think Trump’s legal issues regarding overturning the 2020 election are irrelevant to his fitness for office, even if the charges are factual.
Most GOP voters in both states do not believe the evidence showing Biden legitimately won the last election. Two-thirds wrongly insist he did not earn enough votes to fairly win the presidency, despite recounts and audits confirming the results. But voters overall are reasonably confident in their state’s election systems heading into 2024.
Around 70% in Michigan and Georgia express faith that votes will be accurately counted in next year’s midterms. Confidence drops among Trump’s hardcore base, half of whom distrust election integrity in their state.
While elections are top of mind, there are still multiple phases of the 2024 race to be decided. Michigan and Georgia don’t vote until late February and early March respectively in the Republican primaries. Trump holds double-digit leads in both states, reflecting his frontrunner status across the country.
Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley battle for a distant second place behind Trump in both Michigan and Georgia. The field could change after the initial primaries, but hypothetical head-to-head matchups show Trump expanding his advantage over either challenger.
Two-thirds of Republican voters in the states think Trump has the best odds of recapturing their state in the general election. If Haley or DeSantis became the nominee instead, polls show them leading Biden by even wider margins than Trump currently does.
Based on the polling, President Biden’s chances for reelection in 2024 look incredibly slim. With Trump leading head-to-head matchups in critical swing states like Michigan and Georgia, Biden trailing hypothetical GOP nominees besides Trump as well, and the president’s approval ratings mired in the 30s, it seems Biden has already lost his grip on the next presidential race.
Barring a massive shift in public opinion over the next few months, Biden appears destined to serve just a single term before giving way to a return of Trump Republican control over the White House. Americans could very well be looking at another Trump presidency come 2024.
